Khmer Times, Opinion, March 29, 2021 (Link)
The US-China talks in Alaska has become a prelude of the consolidation of bifurcation of world order. The level of concerns for tensions can range from fiercer competition, to rivalry, and to wars at different forms and fronts.
When China announced the relief of conditions for visitors who had received Chinese vaccines, it drew a question that: what if different countries set different requirements for different types of vaccines? How would people’s mobility, medical choices, business interactions or even nationalities, would be impacted from such requirements? The racism and anti-Asian hate crime in the US is quite disturbing already.
Some of the impacts have been pre-existing, especially in terms of trade and technological wars.
In these domains, US-China bifurcation creates complications for economic and market choice with the camouflage of ideological competition as the overarching context, and mutual accusations of technical and technological deficiencies, thefts, unfair competition and protectionism as the logics on the ground.
Countries have been struggling to choose which source of 5G technology they should adopt. For Thailand, its Digital Economy Promotion Agency (depa) and Huawei opened Thailand 5G Ecosystem Innovation Centre in Bangkok in September 2020. For Singapore, in June 2020, the Singaporean Infocomm Media Development Authority (IMDA) finalized 5G contract with Nokia and Ericsson by avoiding Huawei. Thailand’s case offered a courageous move while Singapore’s case a cautious one amid the Huawei’s becoming one of the prime cases for US-China technological war.
For infrastructure development, China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been contested by the US’ Blue Dot Network, and Japan’s Partnership for Quality Infrastructure.
Indonesia’s development of Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway offers a good case study on China-Japan bidding war. Indonesia has jiggled between China and Japan before the decision to choose China’s offer in 2016 but Indonesia has secured more Indonesian workforces and the increase of technological transfer.
Amid harsh geopolitical competition, if handled carefully, countries can benefit. If not, countries will become the constant subject for scrutiny. But the question is about how and who should judge whether the decision is right or wrong? Is Thailand wrong to choose collaboration with Huawei in developing its 5G ecosystem? Is Indonesia wrong to choose China’s offer to build its high-speed rail? Is Singapore wrong to choose Nokia and Ericsson as its 5G supplier?
The problem here is not limited to market choice or development choice. It raises big question when one’s economic and development choice has become or has been treated as ideological mistake even if that economic and development choice is supposed to be a sovereign decision. To some extent, if it is a national level protectionism to maintain one’s own industry, it is understandable but if it goes up to the global scale, something is just not right in terms of market capitalism and freedom of choices.
Ideologizing market competition is something to be worried about because this forces countries to choose not based on quality and price, and market freedom but on ideological and geopolitical “crimes and punishment” basis.
This is where and how the bifurcation of world order has disrupted economic development in real practice. Sometimes, small states are left with no choice but to halt the development for fear of being dragged into the bifurcation conundrum.
Disruptions and impacts can be more serious especially for countries like Cambodia, which has been perceived as China’s vassal state.
For example, if the Sihanoukville Port in Preah Sihanouk Province is being renovated by Japanese, there is no noise at all. But when the port and airport are being built by Chinese at Dara Sakor, Koh Kong Province, noises have been amplified to the extreme level from environmental issues, to corruption, and even to the alleged China’s military power projection and strategic dominance over the South China Sea all the way from Cambodian seaports in the Gulf of Thailand.
One cannot be sure of the rationality whether it is a real military calculation or an overrated China’s paranoid. And it is obvious that Cambodia does not have the luxury to escape from scrutiny and criticism like Thailand and Indonesia do for whatever choice Cambodia made that is related to China. The next day, it would be all in the media that “Cambodia adopted China-styled, etc. etc.”
Wrong moves can always be subject for “crime and punishment” by the Western countries who always use unilateral, extrajudicial, and extra-territorial sanctions to exert their power and influence. Bifurcation does not stop at economic sphere. It can go to political, diplomatic and multilateral spheres, where the Western countries have stronger leverages.
Due to bifurcation, states that have close relations with China often become subject of criticism on human rights and democracy from Western countries, and double-standard can be applied for those states who have good strategic and geopolitical relations with the Western countries.
For instance, Cambodia is often the target of the EU’s criticism on human rights and democracy. When the EU has 27 members, the EU has 27 bullets to shoot at single Cambodia at the Human Rights Council as they can simply take turn to carry out the onslaught against Cambodia. And it is very easy to pick on Cambodia, even if it is in the middle of the fighting against the Covid-19 pandemic.
In the most recent case, Finland ironically criticized Cambodia’s Covid-19 law when Finland has already invoked lockdown and state of emergency in their own country. Such double-standard deprives Cambodia of its sovereign rights to decide on its own on how it should protect peoples’ lives. As of 25 March 2021, Finland has over 70,000 infected cases and over 800 death while Cambodia has 7 death from Covid-19. Finland’s comment was not helpful at all, rather it was disturbing especially when Cambodia is struggling very hard to suppress the current 20 February Community transmission.
This time, Finland is the actor, and the next day, a new actor and speaker will appear to discredit Cambodia based on the systematic bifurcated world view, and double-standard based on geopolitical divide.
Cambodia is easy, convenient and favorite target because it practically has no leverage to fight back.
Sanctions are the diplomatic and economic weapons of choice to use in the bifurcated world.
These are the real and existing dangers of the bifurcation of world order.
Of course, conventional wars are not out of sight. Proxy wars can always happen again like in the past Vietnam wars and Cambodian 30-year civil wars, and civilian lives will be sacrificed.
How the world should cooperate to prevent such bifurcation should be the priorities for all states.
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