Traveling style of Senior Khmer Statesman Hun Sen

Khmer Times, Opinion, 19 December 2022 (Link)

As a prime minister, Hun Sen has travelled a lot both domestically and internationally.

Wherever he goes, he has a popularity like a “Rockstar” that triggers love, support and envy, the charismatic leader who gathers crowd and attention. The frequency and intensity of his travelling is beyond compare and it is very hard to find any international leaders, young or senior, that can travel as much as he does.

This is not  leisure traveling. These are travels that are full of agenda and energy to create an impact, some even creates history. The traveling that requires heavy physical and mental stamina. The word “healthy” alone may not be sufficient to describe the capability to carry out these heavy duties, the like of Hun Sen’s style of work and travel.

There are many examples of his intensive travel and working style.

Just before the 40th and 41st ASEAN Summits and Related Summits, Hun Sen made a tour to northwestern provinces of Cambodia in late October to meet with Cambodian flood victims.

On 21 and 22 October, he met with 1,853 families and 3,200 families in two separate occasions in Siem Reap province. On 23 October, he met with more than 5,000 families in Banteay Meanchey province.

On 24 October, he met with 11,528 families in Battambang province. On 25 October, he met with 5,145 families in Pursat province. On 26 October, he met with 3,460 families in Kampong Chhnang province. On 29 October, he visited Kampong Thom province and met with 6,844 families. On 30 October, he met with 6,112 families in Prey Veng province.

This is an example of his extremely hectic schedule. And that did not include the schedule that he set for meetings with local authorities and armed forces after meetings with the flood victims.

Long live ASEAN!

Asia Times, Opinion, October 14, 2022 (Link)

By staying true to its founding principles, the association has not only survived for 55 years but grown stronger

It is not unusual for pundits to say the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is doomed to fail, or the end of ASEAN is coming. In fact, it has been said since its creation.

After all, with nations that are so colorful as those in ASEAN, everyone can question how the organization will stick together. But the organization has survived for 55 years. More than that, ASEAN has expanded from five to 10 members, and is making steps toward 11.

There are three rationales, conscious or unconscious. behind the naysayers’ arguments.

First is the misperception that new members add burdens for ASEAN. Second is the misperception that the older members are always united and aligned. And third is a sense of hopelessness over ASEAN’s slow action on divisive international and regional issues.

On the first rationale, Cambodia is a good case study for discussion.

Back in the 1980s, “Cambodian problems” were a major security challenge for the region. Peace and stability were threatened as countries in the region were fearful of the domino effects of communist expansionism.

Indonesia and Thailand had been active in supporting peace negotiations among Cambodia’s different parties. Well ahead of the Paris Peace Agreements of 1991, the proactive contribution from ASEAN to Cambodia’s peace-making process is historically recorded. Large-scale war was fading gradually from Cambodia as well as the region. And as peace solidified, Cambodia applied for ASEAN membership, and acceded to the grouping in 1999.

The fact here is that even when Cambodia was not a member of ASEAN, the organization was proactive in helping Cambodia to achieve peace, and in securing the whole region from large-scale war and the humanitarian plights that are the consequences of war.

This proved that the founding fathers of ASEAN were open-hearted, altruistic and farsighted. They were not selfish at all. The great ASEAN statesmen of those times chose to mediate Cambodian problems even if Cambodia was not a member of ASEAN, because they knew that it was in the interest of ASEAN to do so.

Now, ASEAN is benefiting from a safer and more developed Cambodia. After all, Cambodia sits in the heart of Southeast Asia, and ASEAN would not want to have a poor and war-torn country within its borders.

ការនិយាយថា ខ្មែរក្រទៅក្រទៅ គឺមិនត្រឹមត្រូវនោះទេ !

ទស្សនៈមិត្តអ្នកអាន, Freshnews, ថ្ងៃទី ២ ខែ មិថុនា ឆ្នាំ ២០២២ (តំណភ្ជាប់)

(ភ្នំពេញ)៖ ពាក្យថា « ខ្មែរក្រទៅក្រទៅ» នរណាក៏ធ្លាប់ស្តាប់លឺពាក្យនេះដែរ ហើយដល់ស្តាប់យូរទៅ ហើយថែមទាំងឃើញឡានលុចស៊ីស រ៉ូលរ៉យ ជិះពេញផ្លូវនៅក្រុងភ្នំពេញ ទន្ទឹមគ្នានឹងអ្នកដើរសុំទាននៅតាមភ្លើងស្តុប យើងក៏ប្រហែលជាអាចនឹកភ្នកក្នុងចិត្តថា តិចដូចគេថាមែនទៅ។ តើយើងគួរជឿតាមគេថា ឬគួរជឿតាមអារម្មណ៍ ដោយគ្មានការពិចារណាឬយ៉ាងណា?

ប្រាកដជាអត់ហើយ។ បើដូច្នេះ តើយើងមានអំណះអំណាង ឬសូចនាករអ្វីដើម្បីធ្វើជាមូលដ្ឋានវាស់វែងភាពមានក្រ និងដើម្បីវែកញែក ដោយសត្យានុម័តទៅលើសំណួរខាងលើនេះ?

ឥឡូវយើងពិភាក្សា និងពិចារណាលើបញ្ហានេះទាំងអស់គ្នា។
ដំបូង យើងយកតួលេខវិទ្យាសាស្ត្រមកពិនិត្យ។ ដើម្បីដឹងថាប្រទេសមួយក្រ ឬមាន ជាទូទៅគឺគេពិនិត្យមើលលើអត្រាភាពក្រីក្រ ពោលគឺភាគរយនៃចំនួនប្រជាជនដែលរស់នៅក្រោមបន្ទាត់ក្រីក្រ ដែលមានចំណូលតិចជាង១,៩ដុល្លារក្នុងមួយថ្ងៃ។ សូចនាករមួយទៀតគឺការពិនិត្យមើលទំហំនៃផលិតផលសរុបក្នុងស្រុក (ផ.ស.ស ឬ GDP) ឬចំណូលជាតិដុល (GNI) ក្នុងប្រជាជនម្នាក់ៗ។

តួលេខរបស់ធនាគារពិភពលោកបានបង្ហាញថា អត្រាភាពក្រីក្ររបស់កម្ពុជាបានធ្លាក់ចុះពី ពី ៥៣% ក្នុងឆ្នាំ២០០៤, មកនៅ ៤៧,៨% នៅឆ្នាំ២០០៧ និងមកនៅត្រឹម ១៣,៥%នៅឆ្នាំ២០១៤។ តួលេខនេះបានបន្តធ្លាក់ចុះនៅក្រោមកម្រិត ១០% នៅមុនពេលវិបត្តិជំងឺកូវីដ-១៩ វាយលុក។ ដើម្បីទប់កុំឱ្យពលរដ្ឋជាច្រើនធ្លាក់ក្នុងស្ថានភាពក្រីក្រសាជាថ្មី ដោយសារវិបត្តិជំងឺកូវីដ រាជរដ្ឋាភិបាលបានបញ្ចេញសាច់ប្រាក់ជាង៤០លានដុល្លារក្នុងមួយខែ ដើម្បីឧបត្ថម្ភជីវភាពដល់ក្រុមគ្រួសារក្រីក្រជាង ៧សែនគ្រួសារ ឬស្មើនឹងប្រជាជនជាង ៣លាននាក់។

យ៉ាងណាក្តី យោងតាមការប្រែប្រួលនៃស្ថានភាពសេដ្ឋកិច្ច និងសង្គម ថ្មីៗនេះ កម្ពុជាបានកំណត់ខ្សែបន្ទាត់ភាពក្រីក្រឡើងវិញ តាមរយៈការប្រើប្រាស់ទិន្នន័យអង្កេតសេដ្ឋកិច្ច សង្គមកម្ពុជាថ្មីបំផុត ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩/២០២០ ហើយខ្សែបន្ទាត់ភាពក្រីក្រថ្នាក់ជាតិនៅកម្ពុជា បច្ចុប្បន្នគឺស្មើនឹង ១០.៩៥១ រៀល ឬស្មើនឹង ២,៧ ដុល្លារអាមេរិកសម្រាប់មនុស្សម្នាក់ក្នុងមួយថ្ងៃ ។ ជាមួយនឹងខ្សែបន្ទាត់ភាពក្រីក្រថ្មីនេះ ប្រហែល ១៨% នៃប្រជាជនកម្ពុជាត្រូវបានកំណត់ថាជាអ្នកក្រីក្រ។

បើគ្មានវិបត្តិកូវីដកើតឡើងទេ អត្រាភាពក្រីក្ររបស់កម្ពុជាគឺធ្លាក់ថយចុះជាលំដាប់ ដូច្នេះ ការនិយាយថា ខ្មែរក្រទៅក្រទៅគឺមិនត្រឹមត្រូវនោះទេ។ កំណើនសេដ្ឋកិច្ចក្នុងអត្រាមធ្យម ៧,៧% ក្នុងចន្លោះពីឆ្នាំ១៩៩៨ ដល់ឆ្នាំ ២០១៩ បានធ្វើឱ្យកម្ពុជាក្លាយជាប្រទេសដែលមានកំណើនលឿនបំផុតមួយនៅក្នុងពិភពលោក និងបានចូលរួមចំណែកដល់ការកាត់បន្ថយភាពក្រីក្រផងដែរ។ ក្នុងចំណោម ៦៩ ប្រទេស ដែលមានទិន្នន័យអាចប្រៀបធៀបគ្នាបាន ពីឆ្នាំ ២០០៤ ដល់ឆ្នាំ ២០០៨ កម្ពុជាស្ថិតក្នុងចំណាត់ថ្នាក់ទីបួនលើការកាត់បន្ថយភាពក្រីក្រលឿនបំផុតក្នុងពិភពលោក។

Cambodia’s Win-Win Policy and International Peace Theories

Khmer Times, Opinion, 9 February 2022 (Link)

1. Dichotomy of debate: international intervention or endogenous initiative?

It takes only a short time to start a war but ending it and building peace requires generations. Cambodia’s three decades of civil war had sowed distrust and a vicious cycle of structural violence on top of the mutually annihilating behaviour and social destruction. As a result, the whole society had lost every chance of development, as poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, and the deprivation of basic human rights became the norms.

The Win-Win Policy refers to the national reconciliation policy crafted and implemented by Prime Minister Hun Sen from 1996 to 1998 to end the more than three decades of civil war through dismantling the Khmer Rouge’s political organisation and integrating them into the social, economic, and political life of the Cambodian state.

Not much research has been done on this specific topic due to international perception that peace was fully restored after the 1993 United Nations-brokered elections. However, this perception has gradually changed. More scholars and media communities have started to acknowledge that the 1993 election was merely one building block of the long process of peace-building and was not a definitive point of peace attainment.

When discussing Cambodia’s peace, one should not adopt a mutually-denial manner and focus only on who should take the monopoly of credits for Cambodia’s peace, the international community or the Cambodian government. Discussion on Cambodia’s peace-building tends to adopt two opposite extremes, the “overemphasis on external intervention” and the “nationalistic monopoly of peace.” The former group thinks that the international community should be more assertive in Cambodia’s peace process and should not heed to political compromise with the Hun Sen government. They believe that the international community has an obligation to bring peace to Cambodian people. However, they tend to ignore the limited time and resources that the international community could commit.

The overemphasis on foreign intervention draws criticisms of an imperialist or colonial mindset in which the roles of local actors are not fully appreciated. Consequently, the “nationalistic monopoly of peace” paradigm has emerged to countervail the “overemphasis on external intervention” paradigm to give credits to local actors and initiatives. Indeed, there were historical facts showing achievements by the local actors. Unfortunately, they were not fully appreciated by some circles of the international community. The Cambodian government’s narrative on the Khmer-initiated Win-Win Policy is thus viewed as a propaganda attempting to promote local monopolisation of Cambodia’s attainment of peace. However, the “nationalistic monopoly of peace” paradigm has its firm ground. As war lingered on, monopolisation of the peace process by local stakeholders increased because international intervention could not endure the lengthy peace-building process that could take decades. Aid fatigue and human resource exhaustion are the limit of international intervention.

Nevertheless, it is not right to suggest that total peace can be achieved without external involvement because if international actors still provide military, diplomatic, and political support or even media support to rebel groups, secessionist groups, or groups that seek the violent overthrow of the government, peace created by local stakeholders cannot withstand. Thus, on top of the domestic stakeholders’ commitment to peacebuilding, durable peace requires direct and indirect support from the international community for state legitimacy.

Cambodia’s economy: what to watch for in 2022

Asia Times, Opinion, February 4, 2022 (Link)

The country has largely brought the pandemic under control, and signs of a strong recovery are good

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, Cambodia was a world leader in economic growth and poverty reduction. It sustained an average growth rate of 7.7% between 1995 and 2019, raising its per capita income from US$323 in 1995 to $1,621 in 2019, and graduated to a lower-middle-income economy in 2015. The poverty rate fell from 47.8% in 2007 to 13.5% in 2014.

Like every country, Cambodia’s economy as well as society as a whole has been severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nonetheless, since last November, Cambodia has reopened the country and started to live with Covid-19, betting on the kingdom’s herd immunity built upon one of the world’s highest vaccination rates.

As of November 28, the country was ranked second in Asia and seventh in the world for the total share of fully and partly vaccinated people in its total population. On December 20, the results of the so-called “February 20 community event” were declared an end after the government had struggled to contain the outbreak nationwide for 10 months.

The world is quite contradictory because the advanced economies have a surplus of vaccines and yet they are struggling with vaccine hesitancy, while developing countries have been battling for access to vaccines.

Cambodia is among the lucky few developing countries that can secure vaccines for its people, who welcome inoculation as the only means and strategy for national reopening up. The World Health Organization attested to Cambodia’s vaccine success in that regard, but also warned of “vaccine optimism.”

As of November, 87.7% of the population of about 16 million had been fully vaccinated, and Covid-19 has been under control with fewer than 3,000 deaths.

On top of public health measures, robust fiscal, economic and social-security measures have been pursued to prevent the full-scale fallout of the economy and people’s livelihoods. In December, the government laid out 10 rounds of intervention measures to support survival and recovery of micro, small and medium enterprises and sectors most affected, namely garment and tourism, and to provide minimum basic needs for 700,000 vulnerable households.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), $829 million was spent for interventions in 2020, and $1.454 billion in 2021. For the national budget in 2022, under the “3Rs” pillars (“Recovery, Reforms, Resilience”), the government has earmarked $1.014 billion for intervention, making the total expense since 2020 amount to approximately $3.4 billion.

The MEF predicted growth for 2021 at 3.0% and 5.6% for 2022, expecting the economy gradually to reach its potential in the medium term, supported by global demand and a gradual recovery in investment confidence.

For 2022, three trends should be key for observation on development of Cambodia’s economy.