Cambodia’s Win-Win Policy and International Peace Theories

Khmer Times, Opinion, 9 February 2022 (Link)

1. Dichotomy of debate: international intervention or endogenous initiative?

It takes only a short time to start a war but ending it and building peace requires generations. Cambodia’s three decades of civil war had sowed distrust and a vicious cycle of structural violence on top of the mutually annihilating behaviour and social destruction. As a result, the whole society had lost every chance of development, as poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, and the deprivation of basic human rights became the norms.

The Win-Win Policy refers to the national reconciliation policy crafted and implemented by Prime Minister Hun Sen from 1996 to 1998 to end the more than three decades of civil war through dismantling the Khmer Rouge’s political organisation and integrating them into the social, economic, and political life of the Cambodian state.

Not much research has been done on this specific topic due to international perception that peace was fully restored after the 1993 United Nations-brokered elections. However, this perception has gradually changed. More scholars and media communities have started to acknowledge that the 1993 election was merely one building block of the long process of peace-building and was not a definitive point of peace attainment.

When discussing Cambodia’s peace, one should not adopt a mutually-denial manner and focus only on who should take the monopoly of credits for Cambodia’s peace, the international community or the Cambodian government. Discussion on Cambodia’s peace-building tends to adopt two opposite extremes, the “overemphasis on external intervention” and the “nationalistic monopoly of peace.” The former group thinks that the international community should be more assertive in Cambodia’s peace process and should not heed to political compromise with the Hun Sen government. They believe that the international community has an obligation to bring peace to Cambodian people. However, they tend to ignore the limited time and resources that the international community could commit.

The overemphasis on foreign intervention draws criticisms of an imperialist or colonial mindset in which the roles of local actors are not fully appreciated. Consequently, the “nationalistic monopoly of peace” paradigm has emerged to countervail the “overemphasis on external intervention” paradigm to give credits to local actors and initiatives. Indeed, there were historical facts showing achievements by the local actors. Unfortunately, they were not fully appreciated by some circles of the international community. The Cambodian government’s narrative on the Khmer-initiated Win-Win Policy is thus viewed as a propaganda attempting to promote local monopolisation of Cambodia’s attainment of peace. However, the “nationalistic monopoly of peace” paradigm has its firm ground. As war lingered on, monopolisation of the peace process by local stakeholders increased because international intervention could not endure the lengthy peace-building process that could take decades. Aid fatigue and human resource exhaustion are the limit of international intervention.

Nevertheless, it is not right to suggest that total peace can be achieved without external involvement because if international actors still provide military, diplomatic, and political support or even media support to rebel groups, secessionist groups, or groups that seek the violent overthrow of the government, peace created by local stakeholders cannot withstand. Thus, on top of the domestic stakeholders’ commitment to peacebuilding, durable peace requires direct and indirect support from the international community for state legitimacy.

Cambodia’s economy: what to watch for in 2022

Asia Times, Opinion, February 4, 2022 (Link)

The country has largely brought the pandemic under control, and signs of a strong recovery are good

Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, Cambodia was a world leader in economic growth and poverty reduction. It sustained an average growth rate of 7.7% between 1995 and 2019, raising its per capita income from US$323 in 1995 to $1,621 in 2019, and graduated to a lower-middle-income economy in 2015. The poverty rate fell from 47.8% in 2007 to 13.5% in 2014.

Like every country, Cambodia’s economy as well as society as a whole has been severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nonetheless, since last November, Cambodia has reopened the country and started to live with Covid-19, betting on the kingdom’s herd immunity built upon one of the world’s highest vaccination rates.

As of November 28, the country was ranked second in Asia and seventh in the world for the total share of fully and partly vaccinated people in its total population. On December 20, the results of the so-called “February 20 community event” were declared an end after the government had struggled to contain the outbreak nationwide for 10 months.

The world is quite contradictory because the advanced economies have a surplus of vaccines and yet they are struggling with vaccine hesitancy, while developing countries have been battling for access to vaccines.

Cambodia is among the lucky few developing countries that can secure vaccines for its people, who welcome inoculation as the only means and strategy for national reopening up. The World Health Organization attested to Cambodia’s vaccine success in that regard, but also warned of “vaccine optimism.”

As of November, 87.7% of the population of about 16 million had been fully vaccinated, and Covid-19 has been under control with fewer than 3,000 deaths.

On top of public health measures, robust fiscal, economic and social-security measures have been pursued to prevent the full-scale fallout of the economy and people’s livelihoods. In December, the government laid out 10 rounds of intervention measures to support survival and recovery of micro, small and medium enterprises and sectors most affected, namely garment and tourism, and to provide minimum basic needs for 700,000 vulnerable households.

According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), $829 million was spent for interventions in 2020, and $1.454 billion in 2021. For the national budget in 2022, under the “3Rs” pillars (“Recovery, Reforms, Resilience”), the government has earmarked $1.014 billion for intervention, making the total expense since 2020 amount to approximately $3.4 billion.

The MEF predicted growth for 2021 at 3.0% and 5.6% for 2022, expecting the economy gradually to reach its potential in the medium term, supported by global demand and a gradual recovery in investment confidence.

For 2022, three trends should be key for observation on development of Cambodia’s economy.